Zukünftige Energieszenarien in der Europäischen Union - Analyse der tatsächlichen Energie-Struktur in der EU; Meta-Analyse und Vergleich der wichtigsten zukünftigen 2050 Energiemix-Szenarien.

Stipendiatin/Stipendiat: Lena Modzelewska

Since March 2012, when my DBU scholarship started I am working in E.On Ruhrgas in Essen (Nordrhein-Westfalen). My main research question is how is Germany going to meet it’s ambitious greenhouse gases reduction targets while withdrawing from nuclear energy. The aim of my project is to find out what are the tools that German government will use to meet its ambitious nuclear power phase-out plans, how is going to implement the most cost-efficient energy strategies and which energy scenarios is German government going to implement and follow in next few decades. One of the main questions that I will try to answer during my work in E.On Ruhrgas is how leading energy producing company such as E.On is going to adopt to new regulations, what are possible energy scenarios, what it’s development choices look like etc.

The main issue to fulfill the project is to make analysis of EU and Germany energy scenarios until year 2050. My aim is to make deep analysis of most significant scenarios such as for Europe: “A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, European Commision, 2010; “Energy (r)evolution Towards a fully renewable supply in the EU 27”, EREC, Greenpeace, 2010, “Power Choices: Pathways to Carbon-Neutral Electricity in Europe by 2050”, Eurelectric, 2010 and for Germany: “Leitstudie 2010”, DLR, IWES, IFNE für BMU, 2010; “Energieszenarien für ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung”, EWI, GWS, PROGNOS für BMWi, 2010; “Energieziel 2050: 100% Strom aus erneuerbaren Quellen”, IWES für Umwelt Bundes Amt, Juli 2010, “Blueprint Germany: A strategy for a climate safe 2050”, PROGNOS, Öko-Institut für WWF and many others. Next step will be to select most fundamental data (such as: CO2 overall emission reduction targets between 1990-2050, final energy mix construction, total primary/final energy demand between 1990-2050 from each energy sources etc.), combine them together, analyze the results while trying to understand the differences between different scenario views and try to predict which scenarios are most significant and possible to fulfill. The issue is also to make analysis of all scenarios from environment perspective, as well as energy efficiency, economic and energy safety sides.

01.03.2012 - 28.02.2013

Vattenfall Europe AG

Dr. Ulrich Adamheit

E-Mail: E-Mail schreiben